Tuesday race-day assessment — Good 4; official fields finalised 07:45 AEDT
Prospective Cup R7 update after Asterix’s official withdrawal at 10:33 AEDT. Only the unrun Cup assessment has changed; every other race forecast and chosen selection remains frozen at its earlier edition. Latest verified official Flemington going remains Soft 5. Earlier forecasts and prices remain in the historical disclosures.
Good 4 is the single current race-time assessment, based on the official Tuesday 06:27 inspection, rail +2 m and 0.3 mm recorded rain. The official sheet was finalised at 07:45, published 07:48 and checked at 08:05. BOM’s 05:00 forecast carries showers and thunderstorm risk later, but does not establish Soft 6 before racing. This is not an all-day track guarantee.
Sportsbet public page snapshots dated by row. Four R5 leading runners were rechecked at 08:06 against a 07:40:45 page clock; other prices retain snapshots around 07:06, retrieved 07:36–07:39. Pages may be cached and are not verified executable at retrieval. R3, R7 and R9 pre-withdrawal observations are withheld as current quotes.
No post-withdrawal current quotes verified for R3, R7 or R9. Other quotes are dated Sportsbet page snapshots, not certified executable prices. Later track changes remain possible.
CHOSEN: Formal Display. Current course-mile and Alan Brown winning evidence, near-achieved burden and an economical gate justify the explicit 2.8-point winning-chance concession from Rated Gringotts. Observed $7 is a dated Sportsbet snapshot, not a guaranteed current return. Finalised 20-runner field includes I’ve Bean Tryin’.
Dated fixed WIN · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:40:45 am AEDT
Page snapshot 07:40:45 AEDT, retrieved 08:06:07–08:06:19; before official 07:45 field finalisation. Not a live or executed-price claim.
Stevie’s Play
No qualifying selection.
Paddy’s Pick
No qualifying selection.
Awards identify selections within this dated edition. An optional Paddy’s Pick, when shown, is not an extra main recommendation.
Race 1 · 11:45AM AEDT
MIDWAY HANDICAP
Rated · leading win assessment
CABBUCIO
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Cabbucio narrowly leads at 23.25%, with La Morra 20% and Malbork Castle 16%. The exact-course recent form is strong, but access and relative weight changes matter; La Morra still has an 1800 m stamina test. No strong chosen selection. Malbork’s observed return is attractive, but the class rise and seven-day backup keep it a race opinion.
Assessed field: Ten finalised declarations; no emergencies.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
10
CABBUCIO
23.25%
2
52.5
$3.60 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:41 am AEDT
6
LA MORRA
20%
8
56.5
$3.80 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:41 am AEDT
3
MALBORK CASTLE
16%
3
58.5
$13.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:41 am AEDT
5
AGITA
14.25%
10
57.5
$9.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:41 am AEDT
9
DARN CUTE
10%
11
56
$8.50 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:41 am AEDT
4
ALL STAR
7%
7
58
Not quoted
2
MORNINGTON PIER
4%
9
59
Not quoted
7
SAINT EMILION
2%
6
57
Not quoted
8
VETWELVE
2%
1
56.5
Not quoted
11
HE’S GOT GRUNT
1.5%
4
55.5
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Cabbucio narrowly leads at 23.25%, with La Morra 20% and Malbork Castle 16%. The exact-course recent form is strong, but access and relative weight changes matter; La Morra still has an 1800 m stamina test. No strong chosen selection. Malbork’s observed return is attractive, but the class rise and seven-day backup keep it a race opinion.
Original rated: CABBUCIO. Original stance: no chosen selection.
10. CABBUCIO: 23.25% · originally recorded WIN $3.60
6. LA MORRA: 20% · originally recorded WIN $3.80
3. MALBORK CASTLE: 16% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
5. AGITA: 14.25% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
9. DARN CUTE: 10% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
4. ALL STAR: 7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
2. MORNINGTON PIER: 4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. SAINT EMILION: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. VETWELVE: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
11. HE’S GOT GRUNT: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Cabbucio leads at 24% on the expected soft surface. La Morra follows at 17%, with Malbork Castle 16% and Agita 15% offering credible price alternatives. Their competing achieved distance cases prevent a strong selection.
Original rated: CABBUCIO. Original stance: no chosen selection.
10. CABBUCIO: 24% · originally recorded WIN $3.70
6. LA MORRA: 17% · originally recorded WIN $3.70
3. MALBORK CASTLE: 16% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
5. AGITA: 15% · originally recorded WIN $9.50
9. DARN CUTE: 10% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
2. MORNINGTON PIER: 6% · originally recorded WIN $18.00
4. ALL STAR: 6% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
7. SAINT EMILION: 2% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
8. VETWELVE: 2% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
11. HE’S GOT GRUNT: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $14.00
1. COMMODUS: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
02 November 2026, 15:01:58 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet page snapshot 07:06:41 AEDT; retrieved 07:38:52–07:39:20 AEDT, not live-price certification. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 2 · 12:25PM AEDT
TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP
Rated · leading win assessment
ANGIE’S SISTER / PUFFIN
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Angie’s Sister and Puffin share the highest chance at 20.5% each. Their current sprint performances are genuine, but collateral and weight qualifications prevent a clear standout. Star Of Lily and What A Scandal remain credible alternatives. No strong chosen selection.
Assessed field: Fifteen finalised starters, including Bargino and Kazotsky. Emergency numbering is retained by the source, but the official sheet is finalised.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
4
ANGIE’S SISTER
20.5%
9
54
$5.50 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
9
PUFFIN
20.5%
2
54
$6.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
12
STAR OF LILY
12%
11
52.5
$12.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
14
WHAT A SCANDAL
11.3%
1
54
$6.50 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
16
FLIRTATION
10%
5
54
$4.40 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
3
BOMBAY BOOM
6%
16
57.5
$12.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
8
IRISH JIG
5.2%
3
54
Not quoted
5
BLUE AKOYA
5%
18
56.5
Not quoted
1
PRATT
2.5%
6
58
Not quoted
10
READY TO RUSH
2.5%
12
53
Not quoted
7
BEAUMISTA
2%
7
56.5
Not quoted
15
BIG LON
2%
4
52.5
Not quoted
17
BRUTAL FORCE
0.3%
10
54
Not quoted
19
BARGINO
0.1%
14
54
Not quoted
20
KAZOTSKY
0.1%
13
54
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Angie’s Sister and Puffin share the highest chance at 20.5% each. Their current sprint performances are genuine, but collateral and weight qualifications prevent a clear standout. Star Of Lily and What A Scandal remain credible alternatives. No strong chosen selection.
Original rated: ANGIE’S SISTER / PUFFIN. Original stance: no chosen selection.
4. ANGIE’S SISTER: 20.5% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
9. PUFFIN: 20.5% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
12. STAR OF LILY: 12% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
14. WHAT A SCANDAL: 11.3% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
16. FLIRTATION: 10% · originally recorded WIN $4.40
3. BOMBAY BOOM: 6% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
8. IRISH JIG: 5.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. BLUE AKOYA: 5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
1. PRATT: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. READY TO RUSH: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. BEAUMISTA: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. BIG LON: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
17. BRUTAL FORCE: 0.3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
19. BARGINO: 0.1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
20. KAZOTSKY: 0.1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Angie’s Sister leads at 24%, ahead of Puffin 18%, supported by achieved rain-affected sprint form. Flirtation 11% and Star Of Lily 10% remain live alternatives. This is a race opinion, not a strong chosen bet.
Original rated: ANGIE’S SISTER. Original stance: no chosen selection.
4. ANGIE’S SISTER: 24% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
9. PUFFIN: 18% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
16. FLIRTATION: 11% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
12. STAR OF LILY: 10% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
14. WHAT A SCANDAL: 7% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
8. IRISH JIG: 6% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
3. BOMBAY BOOM: 5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
5. BLUE AKOYA: 5% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
1. PRATT: 4% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
7. BEAUMISTA: 3% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
10. READY TO RUSH: 3% · originally recorded WIN $18.00
15. BIG LON: 2% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
6. TRIPLE YES: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
17. BRUTAL FORCE: 0.3% · originally recorded WIN $101.00
19. BARGINO: 0.1% · originally recorded WIN $151.00
20. KAZOTSKY: 0.1% · originally recorded WIN $151.00
02 November 2026, 15:01:58 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet page snapshot 07:06:42 AEDT; retrieved 07:38:52–07:39:20 AEDT, not live-price certification. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 3 · 1:05PM AEDT
ALINTA ENERGY HANDICAP
Rated · leading win assessment
CRUIZINGTHESTARS
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Cruizingthestars leads narrowly at 20.5%, ahead of Graffiti Tycoon 19.5% and Shuda Known 17.5%. Baylie’s Folly and Good’n’you are withdrawn; this book includes Andrea, Shuda Known and The Biv. The changed reserve mix does not create an easier draw for every runner. No strong chosen selection; a post-withdrawal quote has not been verified.
Assessed field: Thirteen finalised starters, including Andrea, Shuda Known and The Biv after Baylie’s Folly and Good’n’you withdrawals.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
1
CRUIZINGTHESTARS
20.5%
1
59
Not quoted
5
GRAFFITI TYCOON
19.5%
17
61
Not quoted
17
SHUDA KNOWN
17.5%
18
56
Not quoted
11
HELLENIC BELLE
14%
5
58
Not quoted
6
I AM ADONIS
10.5%
8
61
Not quoted
7
ALABAMA SHOWDOWN
5.5%
3
60.5
Not quoted
4
PELEUS
5%
4
61.5
Not quoted
14
NATIONS LEAGUE
2.5%
10
58.5
Not quoted
19
THE BIV
1.5%
16
56.5
Not quoted
3
HEREWARD
1%
2
61.5
Not quoted
10
SIRAGUSA
1%
6
58
Not quoted
16
ANDREA
0.8%
19
56.5
Not quoted
8
ROYAL CORPORAL
0.7%
9
60.5
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Cruizingthestars leads narrowly at 20.5%, ahead of Graffiti Tycoon 19.5% and Shuda Known 17.5%. Baylie’s Folly and Good’n’you are withdrawn; this book includes Andrea, Shuda Known and The Biv. The changed reserve mix does not create an easier draw for every runner. No strong chosen selection; a post-withdrawal quote has not been verified.
Original rated: CRUIZINGTHESTARS. Original stance: no chosen selection.
1. CRUIZINGTHESTARS: 20.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. GRAFFITI TYCOON: 19.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
17. SHUDA KNOWN: 17.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
11. HELLENIC BELLE: 14% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. I AM ADONIS: 10.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. ALABAMA SHOWDOWN: 5.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. PELEUS: 5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. NATIONS LEAGUE: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
19. THE BIV: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
3. HEREWARD: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. SIRAGUSA: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
16. ANDREA: 0.8% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. ROYAL CORPORAL: 0.7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
No verified post-withdrawal quote; earlier observations withheld
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Cruizingthestars 22% narrowly leads Graffiti Tycoon 21.5%; Hellenic Belle 16.5% follows. Achieved wet form matters, but weight and task changes keep the leading cases competitive. Rolling Home is scratched. No strong selection; Cruizing and Shuda Known remain credible price opinions.
Original rated: CRUIZINGTHESTARS. Original stance: no chosen selection.
1. CRUIZINGTHESTARS: 22% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
5. GRAFFITI TYCOON: 21.5% · originally recorded WIN $3.70
11. HELLENIC BELLE: 16.5% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
17. SHUDA KNOWN: 12.5% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
6. I AM ADONIS: 10.5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
7. ALABAMA SHOWDOWN: 5.5% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
4. PELEUS: 4% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
18. BAYLIE’S FOLLY: 2% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
3. HEREWARD: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
14. NATIONS LEAGUE: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
16. ANDREA: 0.9% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
8. ROYAL CORPORAL: 0.8% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
10. SIRAGUSA: 0.8% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
02 November 2026, 15:01:58 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · No verified post-withdrawal quote; earlier observations withheld. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 4 · 1:40PM AEDT
TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP
Rated · leading win assessment
MAN OF WORTH (IRE)
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Man Of Worth remains clearly Rated at 33%, with the strongest combination of achieved dry-mile performance and current readiness. At the observed $2.10, however, the return is materially below the model fair price of $3.03 (point-estimate return −30.7%), so he is not in the chosen subset. Flying Bandit is a credible positive-price opinion at 18.5% and observed $13, not a forced replacement.
Assessed field: Ten finalised declarations after Super Helpful and Acheson withdrawals.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
6
MAN OF WORTH (IRE)
33%
2
56.5
$2.10 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:43 am AEDT
3
FLYING BANDIT
18.5%
10
59.5
$13.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:43 am AEDT
1
GALLANT STAR
13%
6
57.5
$6.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:43 am AEDT
8
CHARLEROI
11.5%
1
54
$10.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:43 am AEDT
4
ROCK EMPIRE
11%
11
59.5
$4.80 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:43 am AEDT
5
SIR DINADAN (IRE)
4.5%
12
57
Not quoted
9
COSMIC LAD
3.5%
3
53.5
Not quoted
7
MISS HADES
3%
4
54
Not quoted
2
CHINA SEA
1%
9
58.5
Not quoted
11
BELLEISTIC KIDS
1%
8
51
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Man Of Worth remains clearly Rated at 33%, with the strongest combination of achieved dry-mile performance and current readiness. At the observed $2.10, however, the return is materially below the model fair price of $3.03 (point-estimate return −30.7%), so he is not in the chosen subset. Flying Bandit is a credible positive-price opinion at 18.5% and observed $13, not a forced replacement.
Original rated: MAN OF WORTH (IRE). Original stance: no chosen selection.
6. MAN OF WORTH (IRE): 33% · originally recorded WIN $2.10
3. FLYING BANDIT: 18.5% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
1. GALLANT STAR: 13% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
8. CHARLEROI: 11.5% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
4. ROCK EMPIRE: 11% · originally recorded WIN $4.80
5. SIR DINADAN (IRE): 4.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. COSMIC LAD: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. MISS HADES: 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
2. CHINA SEA: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
11. BELLEISTIC KIDS: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
STRONG CHOSEN: Man Of Worth, 30% at $2.90. Current higher-grade placing and achieved mile wins retain the strongest combined case after Acheson’s withdrawal. Flying Bandit and Gallant Star each have 17%. The quoted return is below the model fair price of $3.33 (point-estimate return −13%): this is a win-first endorsement, not a positive-value claim.
Original rated: MAN OF WORTH (IRE). Original chosen selection: MAN OF WORTH (IRE)
6. MAN OF WORTH (IRE): 30% · originally recorded WIN $2.90
1. GALLANT STAR: 17% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
3. FLYING BANDIT: 17% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
4. ROCK EMPIRE: 13% · originally recorded WIN $4.40
8. CHARLEROI: 8.5% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
5. SIR DINADAN (IRE): 4% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
9. COSMIC LAD: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
10. SUPER HELPFUL: 3% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
7. MISS HADES: 2% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
2. CHINA SEA: 1% · originally recorded WIN $61.00
11. BELLEISTIC KIDS: 1% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
02 November 2026, 15:01:58 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet page snapshot 07:06:43 AEDT; retrieved 07:36–07:38 AEDT, not live-price certification. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 5 · 2:20PM AEDT
BIG DANCE
Rated · leading win assessment
GRINGOTTS (NZ)
Bet recommendation
FORMAL DISPLAY (GB) · WIN
Gringotts remains Rated at 21.7%. Formal Display is the chosen selection at 18.9% and observed $7: current course-mile and Alan Brown achievements, near-achieved burden and an economical draw justify conceding 2.8 percentage points of assessed winning chance for the additional return. Gringotts retains superior overall class and gives Formal less weight than in the Alan Brown. This is not a clearance or old-form restoration bet.
CHOSEN: Formal Display. Current course-mile and Alan Brown winning evidence, near-achieved burden and an economical gate justify the explicit 2.8-point winning-chance concession from Rated Gringotts. Observed $7 is a dated Sportsbet snapshot, not a guaranteed current return. Finalised 20-runner field includes I’ve Bean Tryin’.
Assessed field: Twenty finalised starters, including I’ve Bean Tryin’, declared with Coriah Keatings at 54 kg; apprentices cannot claim. Dubai Warrior, Michelangelo and Dances With Hooves are officially eliminated.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
1
GRINGOTTS (NZ)
21.7%
9
62
$3.60 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:40:45 am AEDT
2
FORMAL DISPLAY (GB)
18.9%
2
56.5
$7.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:40:45 am AEDT
3
MAGNATEAR
11.9%
8
55
$11.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:40:45 am AEDT
14
IT’S A KNOCKOUT
9.9%
15
53
Not quoted
5
FULLY LIT
8%
18
54.5
$11.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:40:45 am AEDT
9
HELLSING (IRE)
5.4%
3
53.5
Not quoted
6
PERFUMIST (NZ)
4%
5
54
$7.50 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:11 am AEDT
11
CHURCHILL’S CHOICE
4%
7
53
Not quoted
16
MATIAS
4%
1
53
Not quoted
8
PUNTIN (NZ)
3%
24
54
Not quoted
4
BIANCO VILANO
2.5%
12
54.5
Not quoted
10
MATUSALEM
1.5%
21
53.5
Not quoted
12
CAVALRY MAN
1%
17
53
Not quoted
15
TAVROS
1%
13
53
Not quoted
21
I’VE BEAN TRYIN’
1%
10
54
Not quoted
17
MR CHAPLIN (GB)
0.6%
11
53
Not quoted
19
UZZIAH
0.6%
23
53
Not quoted
7
ROLLING MAGIC (NZ)
0.5%
22
54
Not quoted
20
CARRAVILLA
0.4%
16
53
Not quoted
18
GOLDEN CROSS
0.1%
4
53
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Gringotts remains Rated at 21.7%. Formal Display is the chosen selection at 18.9% and observed $7: current course-mile and Alan Brown achievements, near-achieved burden and an economical draw justify conceding 2.8 percentage points of assessed winning chance for the additional return. Gringotts retains superior overall class and gives Formal less weight than in the Alan Brown. This is not a clearance or old-form restoration bet.
Original rated: GRINGOTTS (NZ). Original chosen selection: FORMAL DISPLAY (GB)
1. GRINGOTTS (NZ): 21.7% · originally recorded WIN $3.60
2. FORMAL DISPLAY (GB): 18.9% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
3. MAGNATEAR: 11.9% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
14. IT’S A KNOCKOUT: 9.9% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. FULLY LIT: 8% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
9. HELLSING (IRE): 5.4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. PERFUMIST (NZ): 4% · originally recorded WIN $7.50
11. CHURCHILL’S CHOICE: 4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
16. MATIAS: 4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. PUNTIN (NZ): 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. BIANCO VILANO: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. MATUSALEM: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
12. CAVALRY MAN: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. TAVROS: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
21. I’VE BEAN TRYIN’: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
17. MR CHAPLIN (GB): 0.6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
19. UZZIAH: 0.6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. ROLLING MAGIC (NZ): 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
20. CARRAVILLA: 0.4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
18. GOLDEN CROSS: 0.1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Sportsbet: Formal Display, Gringotts, Magnatear and Fully Lit page snapshot 07:40:45 AEDT, retrieved 08:06. Other priced runners retain their own earlier row timestamps. Not live-price certification.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Gringotts leads at 24% on demonstrated high-class wet-mile form under weight. Formal Display 18% is a positive-price race opinion, not a strong choice on this wet basis; Magnatear and It’s A Knockout each have 12%. Formal’s current winning form is genuine, but the wider winning-chance gap to Gringotts matters. Formal and Mighty Ulysses have verified current Nil embargo status; that is not proof of peak fitness.
Original rated: GRINGOTTS (NZ). Original stance: no chosen selection.
1. GRINGOTTS (NZ): 24% · originally recorded WIN $3.50
2. FORMAL DISPLAY (GB): 18% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
3. MAGNATEAR: 12% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
14. IT’S A KNOCKOUT: 12% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
5. FULLY LIT: 7% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
9. HELLSING (IRE): 4.5% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
16. MATIAS: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN $14.00
6. PERFUMIST (NZ): 3% · originally recorded WIN $7.50
11. CHURCHILL’S CHOICE: 3% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
4. BIANCO VILANO: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
8. PUNTIN (NZ): 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
10. MATUSALEM: 2% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
15. TAVROS: 1.2% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
7. ROLLING MAGIC (NZ): 0.8% · originally recorded WIN $151.00
17. MR CHAPLIN (GB): 0.8% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
12. CAVALRY MAN: 0.7% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
19. UZZIAH: 0.6% · originally recorded WIN $151.00
20. CARRAVILLA: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $101.00
13. MIGHTY ULYSSES (GB): 0.3% · originally recorded WIN $101.00
18. GOLDEN CROSS: 0.1% · originally recorded WIN $126.00
02 November 2026, 15:01:58 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet: Formal Display, Gringotts, Magnatear and Fully Lit page snapshot 07:40:45 AEDT, retrieved 08:06. Other priced runners retain their own earlier row timestamps. Not live-price certification.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 6 · 3:30PM AEDT
BARN DANCE
Rated · leading win assessment
LISZTOMANIA
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Lisztomania leads at 14.5%, closely followed by Lord Remlap 13.5% and Warrior For Peace 11%. Current class and achieved task evidence compete with draw, burden and several credible light-weight rivals. Lisztomania’s observed $13 is a positive-price opinion, but not an automatic strong selection. Rose Aye is out; the finalised reserve inclusions are shown below.
Assessed field: Fifteen finalised starters, including Poisen Point, Mosgold and Imatruestar. Deepwater Artist is officially eliminated.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
2
LISZTOMANIA
14.5%
20
56
$13.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
6
LORD REMLAP
13.5%
3
54
$4.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
12
WARRIOR FOR PEACE
11%
1
53
Not quoted
9
OFF THE PRESS
9.5%
6
52.5
$5.50 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
4
BOOM TORQUE
8.5%
2
57
$12.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
15
ISHIKARI (NZ)
8.5%
10
52
$8.50 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
10
SUPER NORWEST
7.5%
9
50.5
Not quoted
18
POISEN POINT (NZ)
7.5%
11
51
Not quoted
5
TICKLEBELLY
5%
19
54
$11.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:42 am AEDT
11
ANDALE ANDALE
5%
21
53
Not quoted
7
BODHI BOY (NZ)
2%
5
54
Not quoted
8
ELSON BOY (NZ)
2%
13
54
Not quoted
14
GRACEFUL ELLEN
2%
4
52
Not quoted
19
MOSGOLD
2%
8
54
Not quoted
20
IMATRUESTAR
1.5%
17
54
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Lisztomania leads at 14.5%, closely followed by Lord Remlap 13.5% and Warrior For Peace 11%. Current class and achieved task evidence compete with draw, burden and several credible light-weight rivals. Lisztomania’s observed $13 is a positive-price opinion, but not an automatic strong selection. Rose Aye is out; the finalised reserve inclusions are shown below.
Original rated: LISZTOMANIA. Original stance: no chosen selection.
2. LISZTOMANIA: 14.5% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
6. LORD REMLAP: 13.5% · originally recorded WIN $4.00
12. WARRIOR FOR PEACE: 11% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. OFF THE PRESS: 9.5% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
4. BOOM TORQUE: 8.5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
15. ISHIKARI (NZ): 8.5% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
10. SUPER NORWEST: 7.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
18. POISEN POINT (NZ): 7.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. TICKLEBELLY: 5% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
11. ANDALE ANDALE: 5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. BODHI BOY (NZ): 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. ELSON BOY (NZ): 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. GRACEFUL ELLEN: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
19. MOSGOLD: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
20. IMATRUESTAR: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Lisztomania 12% narrowly leads Lord Remlap 11%, with Warrior For Peace 9%. His achieved class supports a positive-price opinion, but several current-fit rivals remain closely competitive. No strong selection. The displayed book uses the clearly stated fifteen-runner admission assumption.
Original rated: LISZTOMANIA. Original stance: no chosen selection.
2. LISZTOMANIA: 12% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
6. LORD REMLAP: 11% · originally recorded WIN $4.00
12. WARRIOR FOR PEACE: 9% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
18. POISEN POINT (NZ): 8% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
9. OFF THE PRESS: 7% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
10. SUPER NORWEST: 7% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
11. ANDALE ANDALE: 7% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
15. ISHIKARI (NZ): 7% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
4. BOOM TORQUE: 6% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
5. TICKLEBELLY: 6% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
14. GRACEFUL ELLEN: 6% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
17. ROSE AYE: 6% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
8. ELSON BOY (NZ): 3% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
19. MOSGOLD: 3% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
7. BODHI BOY (NZ): 2% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
02 November 2026, 15:02:07 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet page snapshot 07:06:42 AEDT; retrieved 07:38:52–07:39:20 AEDT, not live-price certification. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 7 · 4:10PM AEDT
LITTLE DANCE
Rated · leading win assessment
ESTADIO MESTALLA (IRE)
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Estadio Mestalla narrowly leads at 21.15%, ahead of Fukubana 20.15% and I’mintowin 17.5%. I’ve Bean Tryin’ is withdrawn from this race, not from its separate Big Dance engagement. The leading three have genuine achieved cases but meaningful burden, draw and execution differences. No strong chosen selection; no verified post-withdrawal quote.
Assessed field: Eighteen finalised starters, including Mighty Myrtle, Super Helpful and Acheson after I’ve Bean Tryin’s withdrawal. All have declared riders; apprentices cannot claim.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
1
ESTADIO MESTALLA (IRE)
21.15%
22
62
Not quoted
4
FUKUBANA
20.15%
1
55.5
Not quoted
2
I’MINTOWIN (NZ)
17.5%
6
56
Not quoted
16
SOSINO (IRE)
5.75%
14
52
Not quoted
9
DUBAI WARRIOR
5.2%
12
53
Not quoted
10
JAMBEROO
4.75%
20
53
Not quoted
15
ANYTHINK GOES
4.25%
4
52
Not quoted
6
PALMETTO (NZ)
4%
2
54
Not quoted
3
ZAPHOD (IRE)
3%
5
55.5
Not quoted
8
FORTUNE (FR)
2%
17
53.5
Not quoted
17
VILLASAURUS
2%
19
52
Not quoted
22
SUPER HELPFUL
2%
8
52
Not quoted
23
ACHESON
2%
21
54
Not quoted
19
KING JERRY
1.55%
15
52
Not quoted
13
GREEN RUN
1.5%
9
52
Not quoted
14
HOOLIGAN TOMMY (NZ)
1.5%
7
52
Not quoted
21
MIGHTY MYRTLE
1%
13
54
Not quoted
18
KAIROS LOUIE (NZ)
0.7%
23
52
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Estadio Mestalla narrowly leads at 21.15%, ahead of Fukubana 20.15% and I’mintowin 17.5%. I’ve Bean Tryin’ is withdrawn from this race, not from its separate Big Dance engagement. The leading three have genuine achieved cases but meaningful burden, draw and execution differences. No strong chosen selection; no verified post-withdrawal quote.
Original rated: ESTADIO MESTALLA (IRE). Original stance: no chosen selection.
1. ESTADIO MESTALLA (IRE): 21.15% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. FUKUBANA: 20.15% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
2. I’MINTOWIN (NZ): 17.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
16. SOSINO (IRE): 5.75% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. DUBAI WARRIOR: 5.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. JAMBEROO: 4.75% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. ANYTHINK GOES: 4.25% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. PALMETTO (NZ): 4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
3. ZAPHOD (IRE): 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. FORTUNE (FR): 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
17. VILLASAURUS: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
22. SUPER HELPFUL: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
23. ACHESON: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
19. KING JERRY: 1.55% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. GREEN RUN: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. HOOLIGAN TOMMY (NZ): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
21. MIGHTY MYRTLE: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
18. KAIROS LOUIE (NZ): 0.7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
No verified post-withdrawal quote; earlier observations withheld
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Fukubana leads at 23.5% on current preparation and achieved wet-mile ability, ahead of Estadio Mestalla 18.05% and I’mintowin 15%. Fortune’s public eligibility question is resolved, but its current form still requires restoration. Micro Mikki is scratched. No strong selected bet; reserve admissions remain pending.
Original rated: FUKUBANA. Original stance: no chosen selection.
4. FUKUBANA: 23.5% · originally recorded WIN $4.40
1. ESTADIO MESTALLA (IRE): 18.05% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
2. I’MINTOWIN (NZ): 15% · originally recorded WIN $3.10
16. SOSINO (IRE): 7.45% · originally recorded WIN $16.00
15. ANYTHINK GOES: 5.2% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
5. I’VE BEAN TRYIN’: 5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
9. DUBAI WARRIOR: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN $17.00
10. JAMBEROO: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN $18.00
3. ZAPHOD (IRE): 4% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
6. PALMETTO (NZ): 4% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
14. HOOLIGAN TOMMY (NZ): 2% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
8. FORTUNE (FR): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
17. VILLASAURUS: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
19. KING JERRY: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
13. GREEN RUN: 1.3% · originally recorded WIN $61.00
18. KAIROS LOUIE (NZ): 1% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
02 November 2026, 15:02:07 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · No verified post-withdrawal quote; earlier observations withheld. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 8 · 4:50PM AEDT
ASAHI SUPER DRY CHOISIR HANDICAP
Rated · leading win assessment
KERGUELEN
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Kerguelen leads at 21%, with Wanaruah 19%, Signor Tortoni 18.5% and Polyglot 16.5%. Current class and direct opponent comparisons keep the group competitive; the old peaks of returning runners are not assumed restored. Aviatress is withdrawn. No strong chosen selection; Polyglot remains a credible positive-price opinion at observed $7.
Assessed field: Eight finalised declarations after Aviatress and Maharba withdrawals.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
6
KERGUELEN
21%
1
59
$3.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:40 am AEDT
2
WANARUAH
19%
3
60
$3.70 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:40 am AEDT
7
SIGNOR TORTONI
18.5%
5
58
$5.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:40 am AEDT
9
POLYGLOT
16.5%
4
55
$7.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:40 am AEDT
3
ACCREDITED
13%
8
60.5
$9.50 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:40 am AEDT
4
BRUDENELL
6%
9
58
Not quoted
8
SCAMPI
5%
7
56
Not quoted
10
WHO BUT ROO
1%
6
51
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Kerguelen leads at 21%, with Wanaruah 19%, Signor Tortoni 18.5% and Polyglot 16.5%. Current class and direct opponent comparisons keep the group competitive; the old peaks of returning runners are not assumed restored. Aviatress is withdrawn. No strong chosen selection; Polyglot remains a credible positive-price opinion at observed $7.
Original rated: KERGUELEN. Original stance: no chosen selection.
6. KERGUELEN: 21% · originally recorded WIN $3.00
2. WANARUAH: 19% · originally recorded WIN $3.70
7. SIGNOR TORTONI: 18.5% · originally recorded WIN $5.00
9. POLYGLOT: 16.5% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
3. ACCREDITED: 13% · originally recorded WIN $9.50
4. BRUDENELL: 6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. SCAMPI: 5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. WHO BUT ROO: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Kerguelen leads at 22%, ahead of Wanaruah 19%, Signor Tortoni 17% and Polyglot 15%. The soft-surface evidence supports Kerguelen’s relative case, but the price and competitive opposition do not justify an additional strong choice. Polyglot remains a credible race opinion.
Original rated: KERGUELEN. Original stance: no chosen selection.
6. KERGUELEN: 22% · originally recorded WIN $3.00
2. WANARUAH: 19% · originally recorded WIN $3.60
7. SIGNOR TORTONI: 17% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
9. POLYGLOT: 15% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
3. ACCREDITED: 13% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
8. SCAMPI: 5.5% · originally recorded WIN $8.00
4. BRUDENELL: 5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
5. AVIATRESS: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
10. WHO BUT ROO: 1% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
02 November 2026, 15:02:07 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet page snapshot 07:06:40 AEDT; retrieved 07:38:52–07:39:20 AEDT, not live-price certification. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 9 · 5:30PM AEDT
QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP
Rated · leading win assessment
COMPENSATION
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Compensation leads at 28%, Bruce I Am 23% and Hay Street 16%. The leader’s achieved dry 1000 m wins are the strongest exact-task evidence, but fresh readiness and an outside route remain; Bruce brings current winning form into a higher grade. Benevac, Straand Beauty and Where’stheprofit are withdrawn. No strong chosen selection and no verified post-withdrawal quote.
Assessed field: Nine finalised declarations; no emergencies.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
4
COMPENSATION
28%
9
54.5
Not quoted
12
BRUCE I AM
23%
1
52.5
Not quoted
8
HAY STREET
16%
3
55.5
Not quoted
5
GENEROUS HARRY
11%
2
55
Not quoted
9
MAYBE MOET
9%
4
55
Not quoted
7
CREPE MYRTLE
6%
6
55.5
Not quoted
1
STORM THE RAMPARTS
3.5%
8
58
Not quoted
13
RUNRANIRUN
3%
7
52
Not quoted
10
WINNING REVOLUTION
0.5%
5
53
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Compensation leads at 28%, Bruce I Am 23% and Hay Street 16%. The leader’s achieved dry 1000 m wins are the strongest exact-task evidence, but fresh readiness and an outside route remain; Bruce brings current winning form into a higher grade. Benevac, Straand Beauty and Where’stheprofit are withdrawn. No strong chosen selection and no verified post-withdrawal quote.
Original rated: COMPENSATION. Original stance: no chosen selection.
4. COMPENSATION: 28% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
12. BRUCE I AM: 23% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. HAY STREET: 16% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. GENEROUS HARRY: 11% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. MAYBE MOET: 9% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. CREPE MYRTLE: 6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
1. STORM THE RAMPARTS: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. RUNRANIRUN: 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. WINNING REVOLUTION: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
No verified post-withdrawal quote; earlier observations withheld
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Compensation leads at 22%, ahead of Bruce I Am 20%, Hay Street 13% and Maybe Moet 12%. Benevac’s withdrawal removes a serious wet-ground rival, but does not guarantee an easy lead. Compensation’s fresh readiness and Bruce’s class rise still limit conviction. Storm The Ramparts and Straand Beauty retain speculative value cases at the captured prices, rather than strong selections. No strong chosen bet.
Original rated: COMPENSATION. Original stance: no chosen selection.
4. COMPENSATION: 22% · originally recorded WIN $3.50
12. BRUCE I AM: 20% · originally recorded WIN $3.30
8. HAY STREET: 13% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
9. MAYBE MOET: 12% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
5. GENEROUS HARRY: 8% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
1. STORM THE RAMPARTS: 6% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
6. WHERE’STHEPROFIT: 6% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
7. CREPE MYRTLE: 5.5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
11. STRAAND BEAUTY: 4% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
13. RUNRANIRUN: 3% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
10. WINNING REVOLUTION: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
02 November 2026, 16:51:42 AEDT
Original R9 book — first published in v46 Monday 2 November at 15:07:41 AEDT; carried unchanged in v47 at 15:47:40; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Compensation leads at 18%; Bruce I Am and Benevac share 16%, with Hay Street 11%. Benevac’s achieved wet sprint form strengthens its challenge, while Compensation’s return from a break remains a readiness question. Where’stheprofit’s Saturday run was already assessed. No strong selection.
Original rated: COMPENSATION. Original stance: no chosen selection.
4. COMPENSATION: 18% · originally recorded WIN $4.20
3. BENEVAC: 16% · originally recorded WIN $5.00
12. BRUCE I AM: 16% · originally recorded WIN $3.80
8. HAY STREET: 11% · originally recorded WIN $8.00
9. MAYBE MOET: 10% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
5. GENEROUS HARRY: 7% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
1. STORM THE RAMPARTS: 5% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
6. WHERE’STHEPROFIT: 5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
7. CREPE MYRTLE: 5% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
11. STRAAND BEAUTY: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
13. RUNRANIRUN: 3% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
10. WINNING REVOLUTION: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
02 November 2026, 15:02:07 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · No verified post-withdrawal quote; earlier observations withheld. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 10 · 6:05PM AEDT
THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP
Rated · leading win assessment
SWEETHEARTED
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Sweethearted leads at 22%, ahead of Enamorada 20%, Pride To Follow 18% and Mister Bianco 17%. Sweethearted’s current high-burden sprint reproduction is compelling, but the exact 1200 m task retains contrary evidence; Enamorada returns from a break. Amazing Eagle is withdrawn. Sweethearted, Pride and Mister retain positive-price opinions at the observed returns, not forced strong selections.
Assessed field: Eleven finalised declarations after Amazing Eagle, Theblade and Who But Roo withdrawals.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
3
SWEETHEARTED
22%
8
60
$6.50 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:44 am AEDT
8
ENAMORADA
20%
9
57.5
$1.75 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:44 am AEDT
12
PRIDE TO FOLLOW
18%
10
54
$11.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:44 am AEDT
2
MISTER BIANCO
17%
1
59
$13.00 · Sportsbet fixed win · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:06:44 am AEDT
10
OUI OUI OUI
8%
13
57.5
Not quoted
5
IL PASSERO
5.5%
11
58.5
Not quoted
7
STEEL MOVE
3.5%
12
58
Not quoted
4
CHARCOALS
2%
14
59
Not quoted
9
OAKFIELD JUPITER
2%
6
57.5
Not quoted
11
PRESIDES
1.5%
7
53
Not quoted
14
SHOW COUNTY
0.5%
4
52
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Sweethearted leads at 22%, ahead of Enamorada 20%, Pride To Follow 18% and Mister Bianco 17%. Sweethearted’s current high-burden sprint reproduction is compelling, but the exact 1200 m task retains contrary evidence; Enamorada returns from a break. Amazing Eagle is withdrawn. Sweethearted, Pride and Mister retain positive-price opinions at the observed returns, not forced strong selections.
Original rated: SWEETHEARTED. Original stance: no chosen selection.
3. SWEETHEARTED: 22% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
8. ENAMORADA: 20% · originally recorded WIN $1.75
12. PRIDE TO FOLLOW: 18% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
2. MISTER BIANCO: 17% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
10. OUI OUI OUI: 8% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. IL PASSERO: 5.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. STEEL MOVE: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. CHARCOALS: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. OAKFIELD JUPITER: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
11. PRESIDES: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. SHOW COUNTY: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Sweethearted leads at 19.5%, ahead of Enamorada 16% and Mister Bianco 15.5%; Pride To Follow has 12%. Sweet’s close wet placing under a substantial burden supports her case, but the leading group remains competitive. Sweet and Mister Bianco are positive-price opinions, not strong selected bets. Theblade is scratched. Amazing Eagle has current Nil embargo status; recent lameness remains relevant to readiness.
Original rated: SWEETHEARTED. Original stance: no chosen selection.
3. SWEETHEARTED: 19.5% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
8. ENAMORADA: 16% · originally recorded WIN $1.90
2. MISTER BIANCO: 15.5% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
12. PRIDE TO FOLLOW: 12% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
6. AMAZING EAGLE: 10% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
10. OUI OUI OUI: 8% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
5. IL PASSERO: 5.5% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
4. CHARCOALS: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
7. STEEL MOVE: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
11. PRESIDES: 3% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
9. OAKFIELD JUPITER: 2% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
14. SHOW COUNTY: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
02 November 2026, 15:02:07 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet page snapshot 07:06:44 AEDT; retrieved 07:38:52–07:39:20 AEDT, not live-price certification. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.