RACE-DAY BOOK — FINAL FIELD VERIFIED; PRICE-REVIEW SUCCESSOR
Prospective Cup R7 update after Asterix’s official withdrawal at 10:33 AEDT. Only the unrun Cup assessment has changed; every other race forecast and chosen selection remains frozen at its earlier edition. Latest verified official Flemington going remains Soft 5. Earlier forecasts and prices remain in the historical disclosures.
Soft 5, inspected Tuesday 3 November at 06:00 AEDT; rail +3 m entire circuit. Rainfall 7.4 mm in the past 24 hours. This is the current actual rating, not Monday’s forecast.
Cup R7 current quotes are unverified after Asterix’s withdrawal and are not displayed. All other race prices retain their unchanged individual observation times; this is not a fresh all-card market check.
CHOSEN on current Listed 1400 m performance, demonstrated soft-ground suitability and a credible route against first-trip or less wet-proven rivals. The 59 kg burden remains a concern. At 23.5%, he is still more likely to lose than win.
Dated fixed WIN · Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot 07:55:02 AEDT · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:55:02 am AEDT
Sportsbet fixed win; page clock 07:55:02 AEDT, retrieved 08:06:07–08:06:19 AEDT. Timestamped page snapshot, not a live-price guarantee.
CHOSEN and Stevie on reproduced current stakes form and soft-ground suitability. The reduced $3.20 quote is explicitly accepted for the win-first objective: at unchanged 26.5%, fair odds are $3.77 and point-estimate expected return is −15.2%. The achieved case still leads; this is not a positive-value or lower-risk claim.
Dated fixed WIN · Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot 08:04:07 AEDT · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 8:04:07 am AEDT
Sportsbet fixed win; page clock 08:04:07 AEDT, retrieved 08:06:07–08:06:19 AEDT. Timestamped page snapshot, not a live-price guarantee.
CHOSEN and Stevie on reproduced current stakes form and soft-ground suitability. The reduced $3.20 quote is explicitly accepted for the win-first objective: at unchanged 26.5%, fair odds are $3.77 and point-estimate expected return is −15.2%. The achieved case still leads; this is not a positive-value or lower-risk claim.
Paddy’s Pick
No qualifying selection.
Awards identify selections within this dated edition. An optional Paddy’s Pick, when shown, is not an extra main recommendation.
Race 1 · 10:45 AEDT
DARLEY MARIBYRNONG PLATE
Rated · leading win assessment
ROYAL PRESS
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Royal Press leads on achieved race experience. Amsterdam and Funded are the main alternatives. Debutant effort evidence remains incomplete; PASS.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
1
ROYAL PRESS
23%
9
58kg
Not quoted
2
AMSTERDAM
16%
8
58kg
Not quoted
7
FUNDED
15%
3
56kg
Not quoted
9
RAIN BENDER
12%
7
56kg
Not quoted
8
LA LA LILLY
10%
4
56kg
Not quoted
3
JETSETTER
9%
2
58kg
Not quoted
4
LUMINEUX
6%
6
58kg
Not quoted
6
AMELIA’S AFFAIR
5%
1
56kg
Not quoted
5
SPEEDBOATCONFESION
4%
5
58kg
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Royal Press leads on achieved race experience. Amsterdam and Funded are the main alternatives. Debutant effort evidence remains incomplete; PASS.
Original rated: ROYAL PRESS. Original stance: no chosen selection.
1. ROYAL PRESS: 23% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
2. AMSTERDAM: 16% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. FUNDED: 15% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. RAIN BENDER: 12% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. LA LA LILLY: 10% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
3. JETSETTER: 9% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. LUMINEUX: 6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. AMELIA’S AFFAIR: 5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. SPEEDBOATCONFESION: 4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
No verified current quote: accessible page predates the latest field/ground update.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Royal Press leads on achieved race experience. Amsterdam and Funded are the main alternatives. Debutant effort evidence remains incomplete; PASS.
Original rated: ROYAL PRESS. Original stance: no chosen selection.
1. ROYAL PRESS: 23% · originally recorded WIN $3.50
2. AMSTERDAM: 16% · originally recorded WIN $3.40
7. FUNDED: 15% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
9. RAIN BENDER: 12% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
8. LA LA LILLY: 10% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
3. JETSETTER: 9% · originally recorded WIN $16.00
4. LUMINEUX: 6% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
6. AMELIA’S AFFAIR: 5% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
5. SPEEDBOATCONFESION: 4% · originally recorded WIN $18.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · No verified current quote: accessible page predates the latest field/ground update.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 2 · 11:20 AEDT
PIN & WIN COMMUNITY HANDICAP
Rated · leading win assessment
POLITELY DUN
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Politely Dun leads the current Soft 5 assessment after Foujita San’s withdrawal, with Yauson the main threat. Several credible current routes remain; PASS for the strong subset.
Assessed field: Finalised official field includes Pariah Pearl, Savatoff and Lunar Force. Ninyo is scratched.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
5
POLITELY DUN
18.7%
11
60.5kg
Not quoted
13
YAUSON
16.2%
21
57.5kg
Not quoted
7
JOHNICH
10.5%
14
60kg
Not quoted
14
ICHNUSA
10.3%
20
57kg
Not quoted
12
MR O’REILLY
6.6%
8
57.5kg
Not quoted
19
PARIAH PEARL
6%
13
55kg
Not quoted
8
FEDERER
5.3%
7
59.5kg
Not quoted
4
FLYING VALLEY
4.5%
6
60.5kg
Not quoted
10
CHISPA (NZ)
4.2%
2
58.5kg
Not quoted
16
DUBAI WATCH
4.1%
22
56.5kg
Not quoted
11
DAD AND DAVE (NZ)
3.1%
1
58.5kg
Not quoted
22
LUNAR FORCE
2%
16
53.5kg
Not quoted
15
INTERJECTION
1.7%
10
57kg
Not quoted
18
CAELIUS
1.7%
12
54.5kg
Not quoted
20
SAVATOFF (NZ)
1.6%
4
55kg
Not quoted
3
CHARISSE
1.5%
9
61kg
Not quoted
1
MILITARY ACADEMY (GB)
1%
5
65.5kg
Not quoted
6
SHAIYHAR (IRE)
1%
3
60.5kg
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Politely Dun leads the current Soft 5 assessment after Foujita San’s withdrawal, with Yauson the main threat. Several credible current routes remain; PASS for the strong subset.
Original rated: POLITELY DUN. Original stance: no chosen selection.
5. POLITELY DUN: 18.7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. YAUSON: 16.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. JOHNICH: 10.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. ICHNUSA: 10.3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
12. MR O’REILLY: 6.6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
19. PARIAH PEARL: 6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. FEDERER: 5.3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. FLYING VALLEY: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. CHISPA (NZ): 4.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
16. DUBAI WATCH: 4.1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
11. DAD AND DAVE (NZ): 3.1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
22. LUNAR FORCE: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. INTERJECTION: 1.7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
18. CAELIUS: 1.7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
20. SAVATOFF (NZ): 1.6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
3. CHARISSE: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
1. MILITARY ACADEMY (GB): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. SHAIYHAR (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
No verified current quote: accessible page predates the latest field/ground update.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Politely Dun is preferred on the expected soft ground, ahead of Yauson and Foujita San. The latter remains a credible longer-priced alternative, not a chosen selection. PASS.
Original rated: POLITELY DUN. Original stance: no chosen selection.
5. POLITELY DUN: 16.2% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
13. YAUSON: 14.1% · originally recorded WIN $2.80
2. FOUJITA SAN: 12.8% · originally recorded WIN $17.00
7. JOHNICH: 9% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
14. ICHNUSA: 9% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
12. MR O’REILLY: 5.9% · originally recorded WIN $18.00
19. PARIAH PEARL: 5.4% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
8. FEDERER: 4.8% · originally recorded WIN $16.00
4. FLYING VALLEY: 4.2% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
10. CHISPA (NZ): 3.8% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
16. DUBAI WATCH: 3.8% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
11. DAD AND DAVE (NZ): 3% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
3. CHARISSE: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
15. INTERJECTION: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
18. CAELIUS: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
20. SAVATOFF (NZ): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $126.00
1. MILITARY ACADEMY (GB): 1% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
6. SHAIYHAR (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN $101.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · No verified current quote: accessible page predates the latest field/ground update.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 3 · 12:00 AEDT
TAB ONE POOL TROPHY
Rated · leading win assessment
FRINGILLA
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Fringilla is preferred on the current Soft 5, with Mister Whiskers and Gilgeous next. Stronger distance evidence does not erase the close rival comparison. PASS.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Fringilla is preferred on the current Soft 5, with Mister Whiskers and Gilgeous next. Stronger distance evidence does not erase the close rival comparison. PASS.
Original rated: FRINGILLA. Original stance: no chosen selection.
8. FRINGILLA: 24.5% · originally recorded WIN $4.80
1. MISTER WHISKERS: 20.5% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
4. GILGEOUS: 15.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
2. STAR OF MACEDON: 13% · originally recorded WIN $3.50
9. TANABATA: 9.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. KATOTO: 6.5% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
7. WAIHEKE ROSE (NZ): 5.5% · originally recorded WIN $4.80
5. CAB FRANC (NZ): 2.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. BILLYCART: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot Tuesday 07:32:20 AEDT, retrieved 07:36–07:38 AEDT. Not a live-price guarantee.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Fringilla is preferred on the expected soft ground, with Mister Whiskers and Gilgeous next. Stronger distance evidence does not erase the close rival comparison. PASS.
Original rated: FRINGILLA. Original stance: no chosen selection.
8. FRINGILLA: 24.5% · originally recorded WIN $4.80
1. MISTER WHISKERS: 20.5% · originally recorded WIN $8.00
4. GILGEOUS: 15.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
2. STAR OF MACEDON: 13% · originally recorded WIN $3.40
9. TANABATA: 9.5% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
6. KATOTO: 6.5% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
7. WAIHEKE ROSE (NZ): 5.5% · originally recorded WIN $4.80
5. CAB FRANC (NZ): 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
10. BILLYCART: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $14.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot Tuesday 07:32:20 AEDT, retrieved 07:36–07:38 AEDT. Not a live-price guarantee.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 4 · 12:40 AEDT
THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE PLATE
Rated · leading win assessment
OLE GO
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Ole Go remains rated ahead of The Speed Machine and Parcae. Semantics’ withdrawal changes the inside pace, but outside pressure and competing achieved cases remain. PASS.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
3
OLE GO
20.5%
13
57kg
Not quoted
2
THE SPEED MACHINE
16%
9
57.5kg
Not quoted
12
PARCAE
12.5%
5
55kg
Not quoted
15
SANCTUARY
8%
11
55kg
Not quoted
8
GIN TWIST
7.5%
14
56kg
Not quoted
9
JADZIA
7%
10
55kg
Not quoted
13
FOVEA
5.5%
2
55kg
Not quoted
1
BIG WIGS
5.3%
7
57.5kg
Not quoted
5
ASTON
4.5%
4
57kg
Not quoted
6
SPLENDACIOUS
4.5%
12
57kg
Not quoted
4
PEYTON
3.2%
15
57kg
Not quoted
7
STRIKE PACKAGE
2.8%
3
57kg
Not quoted
10
GAS STATION ROSE
2.7%
8
55kg
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Ole Go remains rated ahead of The Speed Machine and Parcae. Semantics’ withdrawal changes the inside pace, but outside pressure and competing achieved cases remain. PASS.
Original rated: OLE GO. Original stance: no chosen selection.
3. OLE GO: 20.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
2. THE SPEED MACHINE: 16% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
12. PARCAE: 12.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. SANCTUARY: 8% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. GIN TWIST: 7.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. JADZIA: 7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. FOVEA: 5.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
1. BIG WIGS: 5.3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. ASTON: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. SPLENDACIOUS: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. PEYTON: 3.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. STRIKE PACKAGE: 2.8% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. GAS STATION ROSE: 2.7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
No verified current quote: accessible page predates the latest field/ground update.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Ole Go remains the leading opinion after Southern Sway’s withdrawal. Parcae and The Speed Machine are near-tied next, with Semantics close. No strong selection: PASS.
Original rated: OLE GO. Original stance: no chosen selection.
3. OLE GO: 18.5% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
12. PARCAE: 13.4% · originally recorded WIN $9.50
2. THE SPEED MACHINE: 13.3% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
11. SEMANTICS: 12.3% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
8. GIN TWIST: 7% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
15. SANCTUARY: 7% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
1. BIG WIGS: 5% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
5. ASTON: 5% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
9. JADZIA: 5% · originally recorded WIN $16.00
6. SPLENDACIOUS: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
13. FOVEA: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
4. PEYTON: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
7. STRIKE PACKAGE: 2% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
10. GAS STATION ROSE: 2% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:44 AEDT
Original v46 book — published Monday 2 November at 15:07:41 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Ole Go leads this expected-soft assessment; Parcae and The Speed Machine are close next. The Soft 6 allocation is used within the expected range. PASS.
Original rated: OLE GO. Original stance: no chosen selection.
3. OLE GO: 18% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
2. THE SPEED MACHINE: 13% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
12. PARCAE: 13% · originally recorded WIN $9.50
11. SEMANTICS: 12% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
8. GIN TWIST: 7% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
15. SANCTUARY: 7% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
1. BIG WIGS: 5% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
5. ASTON: 5% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
9. JADZIA: 5% · originally recorded WIN $17.00
6. SPLENDACIOUS: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
13. FOVEA: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
4. PEYTON: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
7. STRIKE PACKAGE: 2% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
10. GAS STATION ROSE: 2% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
14. SOUTHERN SWAY: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · No verified current quote: accessible page predates the latest field/ground update.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 5 · 13:20 AEDT
AUSTRALIAN HERITAGE CUP
Rated · leading win assessment
TEMPESTI (ITY)
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Tempesti leads on current staying form and achieved soft-ground distance performance. Jennivamoose and Autumnheat remain genuine challengers; Leonchroi is included following official finalisation. PASS.
Assessed field: Finalised official field includes Leonchroi, ridden by Michael Dee. Black Peppermint changes to Alana Kelly. Suffolk Star and Bur Dubai are eliminated.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Tempesti leads on current staying form and achieved soft-ground distance performance. Jennivamoose and Autumnheat remain genuine challengers; Leonchroi is included following official finalisation. PASS.
Original rated: TEMPESTI (ITY). Original stance: no chosen selection.
4. TEMPESTI (ITY): 17.4% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
5. JENNIVAMOOSE (NZ): 12.4% · originally recorded WIN $4.80
17. AUTUMNHEAT: 10% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
11. GRAND PIERRO: 8% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
2. ATHABASCAN (FR): 7.6% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
3. HIGHLAND BLING (IRE): 6.7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
18. BLACK PEPPERMINT: 6.2% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
20. LEONCHROI (NZ): 5.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. AUTUMN MYSTERY: 5.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
16. BEACH PAD: 5.2% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
13. VEGAS JACK: 3.9% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. SIR CHARTWELL (FR): 3.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. AFTER SUMMER: 2.8% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. TARAMANSOUR (IRE): 1.9% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
12. SAM HAWKENS (IRE): 1.6% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. NEWFOUNDLAND (IRE): 1.4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. ZARIR (IRE): 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. FARAG (NZ): 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot Tuesday 07:35:43 AEDT, retrieved 07:36–07:38 AEDT. Not a live-price guarantee.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Tempesti is the soft-ground opinion, ahead of Jennivamoose and Autumnheat. Several credible staying routes and readiness questions prevent a strong selection. PASS.
Original rated: TEMPESTI (ITY). Original stance: no chosen selection.
4. TEMPESTI (ITY): 17% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
5. JENNIVAMOOSE (NZ): 12% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
17. AUTUMNHEAT: 10% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
11. GRAND PIERRO: 8% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
2. ATHABASCAN (FR): 7.5% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
3. HIGHLAND BLING (IRE): 6.5% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
18. BLACK PEPPERMINT: 6.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
1. NEWLOOK (FR): 6% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
9. AUTUMN MYSTERY: 5% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
16. BEACH PAD: 5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
13. VEGAS JACK: 4% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
15. SIR CHARTWELL (FR): 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
10. AFTER SUMMER: 3% · originally recorded WIN $13.00
7. TARAMANSOUR (IRE): 2% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
6. NEWFOUNDLAND (IRE): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
12. SAM HAWKENS (IRE): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
8. ZARIR (IRE): 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
14. FARAG (NZ): 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $126.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot Tuesday 07:35:43 AEDT, retrieved 07:36–07:38 AEDT. Not a live-price guarantee.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 6 · 13:55 AEDT
ASAHI SUPER DRY PLATE
Rated · leading win assessment
ST LAWRENCE (NZ)
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
St Lawrence narrowly leads Darkbonee, with Al Duca and Sabaj close enough to threaten. The smaller field does not establish a standout. PASS.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
5
ST LAWRENCE (NZ)
22.5%
8
56kg
Not quoted
10
DARKBONEE
21%
9
54kg
Not quoted
6
AL DUCA
16.5%
2
55.5kg
Not quoted
4
SABAJ
16%
4
57kg
Not quoted
7
WYMARK (NZ)
12%
11
55.5kg
Not quoted
11
MAGNASPIN
4.5%
14
54kg
Not quoted
9
AMBASSADORIAL
4.2%
7
54kg
Not quoted
2
RELENTLESS VOYAGER (GB)
1.5%
6
59kg
Not quoted
8
IMMEDIACY (NZ)
1.5%
1
54.5kg
Not quoted
13
NEW YORK HURRICANE
0.3%
5
54kg
Not quoted
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
St Lawrence narrowly leads Darkbonee, with Al Duca and Sabaj close enough to threaten. The smaller field does not establish a standout. PASS.
Original rated: ST LAWRENCE (NZ). Original stance: no chosen selection.
5. ST LAWRENCE (NZ): 22.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. DARKBONEE: 21% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. AL DUCA: 16.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. SABAJ: 16% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. WYMARK (NZ): 12% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
11. MAGNASPIN: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. AMBASSADORIAL: 4.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
2. RELENTLESS VOYAGER (GB): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. IMMEDIACY (NZ): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. NEW YORK HURRICANE: 0.3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
No verified current quote: accessible page predates the latest field/ground update.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
St Lawrence narrowly leads Darkbonee after Tavi Time’s withdrawal, with Al Duca and Sabaj serious challengers. No strong selection: PASS.
Original rated: ST LAWRENCE (NZ). Original stance: no chosen selection.
5. ST LAWRENCE (NZ): 21% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
10. DARKBONEE: 19.5% · originally recorded WIN $5.00
6. AL DUCA: 15.5% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
4. SABAJ: 15% · originally recorded WIN $2.50
7. WYMARK (NZ): 11% · originally recorded WIN $14.00
11. MAGNASPIN: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
14. DIFFERENT GRAVY: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
9. AMBASSADORIAL: 4.2% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
1. AUGUSTUS (GER): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
2. RELENTLESS VOYAGER (GB): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
8. IMMEDIACY (NZ): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
13. NEW YORK HURRICANE: 0.3% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:44 AEDT
Original v46 book — published Monday 2 November at 15:07:41 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
St Lawrence narrowly leads Darkbonee, with Al Duca and Sabaj close behind. Real Class is withdrawn; no automatic replacement tip. PASS.
Original rated: ST LAWRENCE (NZ). Original stance: no chosen selection.
5. ST LAWRENCE (NZ): 19.1% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
10. DARKBONEE: 18% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
6. AL DUCA: 14.1% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
4. SABAJ: 14% · originally recorded WIN $2.60
7. WYMARK (NZ): 10% · originally recorded WIN $16.00
3. TAVI TIME (NZ): 8% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
9. AMBASSADORIAL: 4% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
11. MAGNASPIN: 4% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
14. DIFFERENT GRAVY: 4% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
1. AUGUSTUS (GER): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
2. RELENTLESS VOYAGER (GB): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
8. IMMEDIACY (NZ): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
13. NEW YORK HURRICANE: 0.3% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · No verified current quote: accessible page predates the latest field/ground update.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 7 · 15:00 AEDT
LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP
Rated · leading win assessment
HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE)
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Hopewell Rock remains Rated after Asterix’s withdrawal. Removing the gate-six runner marginally eases positioning for several leading contenders without changing the main pace picture or resolving their 3200 m uncertainties. PASS remains the deliberate strong-bet stance.
Assessed field: Prospective 23-runner reassessment following official Asterix withdrawal at 10:33 AEDT. Assessed on the latest verified official Soft 5; no verified timed upgrade has been found. All earlier forecasts remain preserved.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
12
HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE)
12.2%
15
54.5kg
Not quoted
1
SONS AND LOVERS (GB)
10.1%
3
57.5kg
Not quoted
20
POINT OF LAW (GB)
9.2%
9
53kg
Not quoted
11
JUJA KIBO (IRE)
8.6%
14
55kg
Not quoted
2
TRUSTYOURINSTINCT (IRE)
8%
18
57kg
Not quoted
24
SHOCKLETZ (NZ)
7.1%
17
51kg
Not quoted
22
MR MONACO (GB)
6.6%
16
52.5kg
Not quoted
10
GOODIE TWO SHOES (IRE)
5.5%
19
55kg
Not quoted
16
SO YOU ARE
4.6%
7
54kg
Not quoted
6
ENFJAAR (IRE)
4.1%
8
56kg
Not quoted
14
SOUL OF SPAIN (IRE)
3.5%
5
54.5kg
Not quoted
4
MIDDLE EARTH (GB)
3%
1
56.5kg
Not quoted
18
JAMES J BRADDOCK (GB)
3%
24
53.5kg
Not quoted
23
ZAKOUMA
3%
10
52kg
Not quoted
15
ZAHRANN (IRE)
2.5%
11
54.5kg
Not quoted
5
VAUBAN (FR)
2%
22
56.5kg
Not quoted
3
KNIGHT’S CHOICE
1.5%
2
56.5kg
Not quoted
17
FUTURE HISTORY (GB)
1.5%
12
53.5kg
Not quoted
7
ROYAL SUPREMACY (IRE)
1%
21
56kg
Not quoted
8
WINE DARK SEA (GB)
1%
23
56kg
Not quoted
19
KIZLYAR (IRE)
1%
20
53.5kg
Not quoted
13
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA)
0.5%
13
54.5kg
Not quoted
21
STRICTLY BUSINESS
0.5%
4
53kg
Not quoted
Previous v50 Cup forecast — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:15:33 AEDT; historical 24-runner assessment before Asterix’s withdrawal
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Hopewell Rock is preferred for the current Soft 5, ahead of Sons And Lovers. The Cup remains highly competitive; no strong selected bet. All 24 runners passing veterinary inspections and Coffey’s clearance have been reported by named racing news sources; a direct RV outcome statement was not retrieved. These clearances resolve availability concerns, not performance uncertainty.
Original rated: HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE). Original stance: no chosen selection.
12. HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE): 12% · originally recorded WIN $7.50
1. SONS AND LOVERS (GB): 10% · originally recorded WIN $20.00
20. POINT OF LAW (GB): 9% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
11. JUJA KIBO (IRE): 8.5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
2. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT (IRE): 8% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
24. SHOCKLETZ (NZ): 7% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
22. MR MONACO (GB): 6.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
10. GOODIE TWO SHOES (IRE): 5.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
16. SO YOU ARE: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. ENFJAAR (IRE): 4% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
14. SOUL OF SPAIN (IRE): 3.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. MIDDLE EARTH (GB): 3% · originally recorded WIN $17.00
18. JAMES J BRADDOCK (GB): 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
23. ZAKOUMA: 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. ZAHRANN (IRE): 2.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. VAUBAN (FR): 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
3. KNIGHT’S CHOICE: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
17. FUTURE HISTORY (GB): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. ROYAL SUPREMACY (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. WINE DARK SEA (GB): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. ASTERIX (NZ): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
19. KIZLYAR (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA): 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
21. STRICTLY BUSINESS: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot Tuesday 07:27:05 AEDT, retrieved 07:38:52–07:39:20 AEDT. Not a live-price guarantee.
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Hopewell Rock is preferred for the current Soft 5, ahead of Sons And Lovers. The Cup remains highly competitive; no strong selected bet. All 24 runners passing veterinary inspections and Coffey’s clearance have been reported by named racing news sources; a direct RV outcome statement was not retrieved. These clearances resolve availability concerns, not performance uncertainty.
Original rated: HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE). Original stance: no chosen selection.
12. HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE): 12% · originally recorded WIN $7.50
1. SONS AND LOVERS (GB): 10% · originally recorded WIN $20.00
20. POINT OF LAW (GB): 9% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
11. JUJA KIBO (IRE): 8.5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
2. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT (IRE): 8% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
24. SHOCKLETZ (NZ): 7% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
22. MR MONACO (GB): 6.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
10. GOODIE TWO SHOES (IRE): 5.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
16. SO YOU ARE: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
6. ENFJAAR (IRE): 4% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
14. SOUL OF SPAIN (IRE): 3.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
4. MIDDLE EARTH (GB): 3% · originally recorded WIN $17.00
18. JAMES J BRADDOCK (GB): 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
23. ZAKOUMA: 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. ZAHRANN (IRE): 2.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. VAUBAN (FR): 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
3. KNIGHT’S CHOICE: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
17. FUTURE HISTORY (GB): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. ROYAL SUPREMACY (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
8. WINE DARK SEA (GB): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. ASTERIX (NZ): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
19. KIZLYAR (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA): 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
21. STRICTLY BUSINESS: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot Tuesday 07:27:05 AEDT, retrieved 07:38:52–07:39:20 AEDT. Not a live-price guarantee.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Hopewell Rock is preferred for the expected soft conditions, ahead of Sons And Lovers. The Cup remains highly competitive; no strong selected bet. Veterinary and rider updates still require confirmation.
Original rated: HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE). Original stance: no chosen selection.
12. HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE): 12% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
1. SONS AND LOVERS (GB): 10% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
20. POINT OF LAW (GB): 9% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
11. JUJA KIBO (IRE): 8.5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
2. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT (IRE): 8% · originally recorded WIN $8.00
24. SHOCKLETZ (NZ): 7% · originally recorded WIN $9.50
22. MR MONACO (GB): 6.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
10. GOODIE TWO SHOES (IRE): 5.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
16. SO YOU ARE: 4.5% · originally recorded WIN $12.00
6. ENFJAAR (IRE): 4% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
14. SOUL OF SPAIN (IRE): 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
4. MIDDLE EARTH (GB): 3% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
18. JAMES J BRADDOCK (GB): 3% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
23. ZAKOUMA: 3% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
15. ZAHRANN (IRE): 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
5. VAUBAN (FR): 2% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
3. KNIGHT’S CHOICE: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
17. FUTURE HISTORY (GB): 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
7. ROYAL SUPREMACY (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN $51.00
8. WINE DARK SEA (GB): 1% · originally recorded WIN $41.00
9. ASTERIX (NZ): 1% · originally recorded WIN $61.00
19. KIZLYAR (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA): 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $61.00
21. STRICTLY BUSINESS: 0.5% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Official field and scratching update · Current post-withdrawal quotes unverified. Earlier prices remain in the frozen historical forecast and are not current offers.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 8 · 15:50 AEDT
CROWN AMANDA ELLIOTT
Rated · leading win assessment
MILSONS POINT
Bet recommendation
MILSONS POINT · WIN
CHOSEN on current Listed 1400 m performance, demonstrated soft-ground suitability and a credible route against first-trip or less wet-proven rivals. The 59 kg burden remains a concern. At 23.5%, he is still more likely to lose than win.
CHOSEN on current Listed 1400 m performance, demonstrated soft-ground suitability and a credible route against first-trip or less wet-proven rivals. The 59 kg burden remains a concern. At 23.5%, he is still more likely to lose than win.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
1
MILSONS POINT
23.5%
6
59kg
$26.00 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:55:02 am AEDT
2
BARRACKS
20.5%
14
58kg
$7.50 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:55:02 am AEDT
5
RANARSSON
18.3%
9
54.5kg
$2.00 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:55:02 am AEDT
8
SHOOTING BRAKE
11.3%
10
54.5kg
$21.00 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:55:02 am AEDT
9
HARRY LIME
9.2%
8
54kg
$10.00 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 7:55:02 am AEDT
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
CHOSEN on current Listed 1400 m performance, demonstrated soft-ground suitability and a credible route against first-trip or less wet-proven rivals. The 59 kg burden remains a concern. At 23.5%, he is still more likely to lose than win.
Original rated: MILSONS POINT. Original chosen selection: MILSONS POINT
1. MILSONS POINT: 23.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
2. BARRACKS: 20.5% · originally recorded WIN $7.50
5. RANARSSON: 18.3% · originally recorded WIN $2.00
8. SHOOTING BRAKE: 11.3% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
9. HARRY LIME: 9.2% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
13. MR NATURAL: 5.2% · originally recorded WIN $5.00
3. OUR EMPEROR: 5% · originally recorded WIN $14.00
7. TOLAGA BAY: 4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
12. MERRY CHASE: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. THE THORNCASTER: 0.8% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. BOY FROM ZADAR: 0.7% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Sportsbet fixed win; refreshed top-group page snapshot 07:55:02 AEDT, retrieved 08:06:07–08:06:19 AEDT. Other quoted runners retain their earlier per-runner page clocks; no live-price guarantee.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Milsons Point is CHOSEN: current Listed 1400 performance and demonstrated task suitability justify the preference over Barracks and Ranarsson. At 23% he is still more likely to lose than win.
Original rated: MILSONS POINT. Original chosen selection: MILSONS POINT
1. MILSONS POINT: 23% · originally recorded WIN $21.00
2. BARRACKS: 20% · originally recorded WIN $8.00
5. RANARSSON: 18% · originally recorded WIN $2.20
8. SHOOTING BRAKE: 11% · originally recorded WIN $18.00
9. HARRY LIME: 9% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
3. OUR EMPEROR: 5% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
13. MR NATURAL: 5% · originally recorded WIN $5.00
7. TOLAGA BAY: 4% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
10. OBAMBULATE: 2% · originally recorded WIN $61.00
12. MERRY CHASE: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
14. THE THORNCASTER: 0.8% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
15. BOY FROM ZADAR: 0.7% · originally recorded WIN $81.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet fixed win; refreshed top-group page snapshot 07:55:02 AEDT, retrieved 08:06:07–08:06:19 AEDT. Other quoted runners retain their earlier per-runner page clocks; no live-price guarantee.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 9 · 16:35 AEDT
THE HONG KONG JOCKEY CLUB STAKES
Rated · leading win assessment
SHADHAVAR
Bet recommendation
SHADHAVAR · WIN
CHOSEN and Stevie on reproduced current stakes form and soft-ground suitability. The reduced $3.20 quote is explicitly accepted for the win-first objective: at unchanged 26.5%, fair odds are $3.77 and point-estimate expected return is −15.2%. The achieved case still leads; this is not a positive-value or lower-risk claim.
CHOSEN and Stevie on reproduced current stakes form and soft-ground suitability. The reduced $3.20 quote is explicitly accepted for the win-first objective: at unchanged 26.5%, fair odds are $3.77 and point-estimate expected return is −15.2%. The achieved case still leads; this is not a positive-value or lower-risk claim.
Assessed field: Finalised official field includes Cooly; Karren is eliminated. Cooly probable weight remains 56 kg.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
No.
Horse
P(win)
Gate
Expected kg
Recorded WIN
2
SHADHAVAR
26.5%
2
58kg
$3.20 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 8:04:07 am AEDT
4
DANCE TO THE BOOM
14.5%
7
57kg
$9.00 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 8:04:07 am AEDT
1
STYLISH
13.5%
5
58kg
$15.00 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 8:04:07 am AEDT
7
SO YOU PENCE
11%
4
55kg
$6.50 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 8:04:07 am AEDT
8
TERILEE
11%
9
55kg
$5.50 · Recorded WIN · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 8:04:07 am AEDT
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
CHOSEN and Stevie on reproduced current stakes form and soft-ground suitability. The reduced $3.20 quote is explicitly accepted for the win-first objective: at unchanged 26.5%, fair odds are $3.77 and point-estimate expected return is −15.2%. The achieved case still leads; this is not a positive-value or lower-risk claim.
Original rated: SHADHAVAR. Original chosen selection: SHADHAVAR
2. SHADHAVAR: 26.5% · originally recorded WIN $3.20
4. DANCE TO THE BOOM: 14.5% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
1. STYLISH: 13.5% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
7. SO YOU PENCE: 11% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
8. TERILEE: 11% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
11. GOLD MEDALLIST: 7% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
6. RUSKA ROMA: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
5. MISS FREELOVE: 3% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
3. OH TOO GOOD: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. TOMATO TOASTIE: 2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. MILOS FILOS: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
17. COOLY: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
12. BUTTERNUT PRINCESS: 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. STEALTH OF NIGHT (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. BETWITCHERY: 0.8% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
10. BON MISTRESS: 0.2% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
Sportsbet fixed win; refreshed top-group page snapshot 08:04:07 AEDT, retrieved 08:06:07–08:06:19 AEDT. Other quoted runners retain their earlier per-runner page clocks; no live-price guarantee.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Shadhavar is CHOSEN and Stevie on reproduced current stakes form and soft-ground suitability. The $3.40 quote is shorter than our point-estimate fair price; no value claim. Dance To The Boom and Stylish are the main alternatives.
Original rated: SHADHAVAR. Original chosen selection: SHADHAVAR
2. SHADHAVAR: 26.5% · originally recorded WIN $3.40
4. DANCE TO THE BOOM: 14.5% · originally recorded WIN $9.50
1. STYLISH: 13.5% · originally recorded WIN $15.00
7. SO YOU PENCE: 11% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
8. TERILEE: 11% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
11. GOLD MEDALLIST: 7% · originally recorded WIN $11.00
6. RUSKA ROMA: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
5. MISS FREELOVE: 3% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
3. OH TOO GOOD: 2% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
15. TOMATO TOASTIE: 2% · originally recorded WIN $23.00
14. MILOS FILOS: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $31.00
17. COOLY: 1.5% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
12. BUTTERNUT PRINCESS: 1% · originally recorded WIN $14.00
13. STEALTH OF NIGHT (IRE): 1% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
9. BETWITCHERY: 0.8% · originally recorded WIN $71.00
10. BON MISTRESS: 0.2% · originally recorded WIN $101.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet fixed win; refreshed top-group page snapshot 08:04:07 AEDT, retrieved 08:06:07–08:06:19 AEDT. Other quoted runners retain their earlier per-runner page clocks; no live-price guarantee.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.
Race 10 · 17:15 AEDT
CHANNEL 9 TROPHY
Rated · leading win assessment
BUCCLEUCH
Bet recommendation
PASS
No main bet recommended. Ratings below are opinions, not invitations to back every race.
Buccleuch remains narrowly rated. Porter’s withdrawal improves Jett Smash’s and Space Rider’s forward options without guaranteeing an easy lead. Keep Your Cool and Everain remain credible rivals. PASS.
Full assessed field · estimated win chances total 100% for the stated going and field. Dated prices are not recommendations.
Previous v49 edition — published Tuesday 3 November at 08:10:22 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Buccleuch remains narrowly rated. Porter’s withdrawal improves Jett Smash’s and Space Rider’s forward options without guaranteeing an easy lead. Keep Your Cool and Everain remain credible rivals. PASS.
Original rated: BUCCLEUCH. Original stance: no chosen selection.
1. BUCCLEUCH: 21% · originally recorded WIN $3.40
2. KEEP YOUR COOL: 16% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
7. JETT SMASH: 15% · originally recorded WIN $6.50
12. EVERAIN: 13.5% · originally recorded WIN $5.50
4. SPACE RIDER: 7% · originally recorded WIN $7.50
6. HE’LL RIP: 6.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
13. NO FUSS (NZ): 5% · originally recorded WIN $17.00
8. CASH: 4% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
9. FERIVIA: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
15. ITAZURA: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $20.00
11. QUISEEN: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN Not quoted
14. FUNDAMENTAL NATURE: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot Tuesday 07:22:01 AEDT, retrieved 07:36–07:38 AEDT. Not a live-price guarantee.
Previous v48 edition — published Monday 2 November at 16:55:39 AEDT; historical, not current
This earlier forecast is preserved unchanged. The dated successor above supersedes the current assessment, not its publication history.
Buccleuch leads, with Keep Your Cool next and Jett Smash/Everain tied behind. Keep is a credible alternative opinion, not a strong chosen selection. PASS.
Original rated: BUCCLEUCH. Original stance: no chosen selection.
1. BUCCLEUCH: 20% · originally recorded WIN $3.90
2. KEEP YOUR COOL: 15% · originally recorded WIN $16.00
7. JETT SMASH: 13% · originally recorded WIN $7.00
12. EVERAIN: 13% · originally recorded WIN $6.00
3. PORTER: 7% · originally recorded WIN $9.00
6. HE’LL RIP: 6% · originally recorded WIN $18.00
4. SPACE RIDER: 5.5% · originally recorded WIN $8.50
13. NO FUSS (NZ): 5% · originally recorded WIN $18.00
8. CASH: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $19.00
9. FERIVIA: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $34.00
15. ITAZURA: 3.5% · originally recorded WIN $17.00
11. QUISEEN: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $26.00
14. FUNDAMENTAL NATURE: 2.5% · originally recorded WIN $10.00
TAB VIC fixed win, Monday 15:01 AEDT
Dated fixed WIN snapshot · Sportsbet fixed win; page snapshot Tuesday 07:22:01 AEDT, retrieved 07:36–07:38 AEDT. Not a live-price guarantee.. Expected weights are declarations, not confirmed race-day weigh-out.